In brief: Research group Pike Research is predicting a 26.4% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for electric-drive buses over the next six years.
Their report, Electric Drive Buses, finds that the Chinese market will continue driving global e-bus sales, but that other markets will also see increased uptake with the primary decider of total increase being the sluggish economy.
Pike suggests that the North American market will be slow, but will rebound before 2018 to match this growth rate and Western Europe will see similar trends.
The paper from Pike says that most of the growth will be in hybrid-electric buses, as this is a mature technology that has found acceptance in the industry. Parallel hybrids are best-suited for urban environments, though costs are a huge issue in this arena. North America remains the leading market for this technology in terms of percentage of sales, but China has a larger sales volume in total.
Both battery-electric and fuel cell buses are still in their infancy and considered test beds rather than full commercial offerings. This is not likely to change during the six year period covered, says Pike.
Pike concludes that without government requirements and/or subsidies for the buses, the market is not likely to increase as much as their projection. If current policies remain largely intact, however, the trend will continue.
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